Both Poisson form models rate Oldham strong favourites at fair odds around 1.76-1.77, backed by better recent form and an expected goals edge of 1.81 to 1.00. The ELO and goal-difference models are more cautious (around 2.15-2.55) but still all sit at or below the market price of 2.54, giving a consistent if moderate edge.

odds available at 09:45

Oldham carry impressive medium-term form and consistent expected goals superiority over Salford City. The Poisson xG model fair value for an Oldham victory sits substantially lower than the market back price.

odds available at 09:45

Oldham's recent form and expected-goal advantage suggest a higher home win probability than the market implies. Salford's weaker away form makes 2.54 look generous.

odds available at 09:45