The short-term attacking projections are especially low here, and both goal models lean under the line. With neither side showing a strong recent scoring edge, the market still looks a little too optimistic on goals.

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The expected goals metrics for both sides are remarkably low, and the statistical models heavily favor a tight, low-scoring derby. The market is underestimating the likelihood of under 2.5 goals, offering substantial value.

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The expected goal totals are only 1.5 in the recent window and 2.0 over the longer sample. Both projections make under 2.5 substantially more likely than the market's 57.5%.

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Both totals models expect few goals: the over 2.5 fair odds of 3.10-5.24 mean under 2.5 should be about 68-81%. The market gives it 57.5%, and expected goals are low in both the short and medium-term windows.

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