The goal models point strongly to a low-scoring match, with both short-term and medium-term expected goals well below a typical 2.5-goal line. The market implies only 59.2% for under 2.5, which looks too low against the supplied goal projections.

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Both analysis windows project fewer than 1.7 combined goals and price over 2.5 at very long odds. That makes the market's 59.2% implied probability for under 2.5 look too low.

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Both short- and medium-term expected-goals totals are very low and the fair over-2.5 price is long, implying a high true chance of under 2.5. Market under price still implies only around 59%, so the low-scoring profile offers clear value.

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Recent matches point to a tight, low-scoring contest, with both teams creating very little and the goal models projecting under 2.5 as highly likely. The market's under price is still generous relative to that baseline.

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Both teams show very low goal expectations across both sample windows, with the Poisson model projecting well under two combined goals. The analysis suggests fair under 2.5 odds around 1.3, so 1.69 looks undervalued even after discounting the model.

odds available at 09:45