Form, goal expectation and a strong ELO advantage all make Palermo odds-on (fair ~1.46). With the market at 1.73, the home win is clear back value.

odds available at 09:45

Every model aligns on a Palermo win: the short-term form model and ELO both estimate fair odds around 1.46, the goal-difference model sits at 1.61-1.90, and Poisson xG projects 1.97 goals for Palermo versus just 0.66 for Sampdoria. The market's 1.73 still sits above the statistical consensus, and external research confirms Palermo are in perfect form this season while Sampdoria arrive with key injuries and no wins in their opening two league games.

odds available at 09:45

The analysis indicates exceptional value, with multiple models favouring a home win significantly more than the market odds suggest. Palermo's dominant recent form contrasts sharply with Sampdoria's poor results, and a very large ELO rating advantage provides further support for a home victory.

odds available at 09:45

Palermo's dominant short-term form (2.67 points per game) and Poisson expected goals (1.97 vs 0.66) are strongly supported by the predicted match odds (1.46) and ELO model (1.46), indicating the market is offering value on the home win.

odds available at 09:45

Palermo's excellent form (2.67 recent, 2.83 medium-term) and strong ELO rating (1702 vs 1405) point to a clear home advantage. The statistical models consistently price Palermo around 1.46-1.61, well below the market's 1.73, indicating genuine value.

odds available at 09:45

All three model families converge on fair home odds of approximately 1.46, well below the market price of 1.73 — a consistent and unusually aligned signal. Palermo have won all four competitive matches this season including 9 of their last 10 at home, while Sampdoria have eight players unavailable through injury, compounding their single point from two league games. The ELO gap (1702 vs 1405) is one of the largest on today's card, reinforcing the statistical case for a home win.

odds available at 09:45

Excellent short-term home form (2.67) and large ELO gap favour Palermo heavily, with the model fair odds at 1.46 against the market 1.73. Goal difference and expected goals both align in the same direction.

odds available at 09:45

Palermo's exceptional short-term form (2.67 points per game) and dominant expected goals profile (1.97 vs 0.66) are reinforced by a significant ELO rating advantage (1702 vs 1405). Multiple statistical models consistently indicate fair odds for a Palermo win between 1.46 and 1.61, revealing clear value against the market back price of 1.73.

odds available at 09:45

Palermo have far stronger recent and medium-term form, a much better goal profile, and all three match-pricing approaches make them shorter than the market does. With the home side projected to create far more chances, the current price still looks generous.

odds available at 09:45

Multiple models unanimously point to fair odds much shorter than the market, supported by strong short-term home form and a significant ELO strength advantage for Palermo.

odds available at 09:45

All three fair-odds models (form, goal-difference, and ELO) price Palermo around 1.46, well below the market's 1.73. Palermo have a massive ELO edge (1702 vs 1405), strong short and medium-term form, and Sampdoria are in poor form with a negative goal difference. Multiple aligned signals for a home favourite — the ELO-driven pick style that worked yesterday.

odds available at 09:45

Exceptional convergence across all models: the short-term home win fair odds are 1.46, medium-term 1.46, goal-difference model 1.61, and ELO model 1.46. Palermo's outstanding short-term form (2.67 from last 6) and massive ELO advantage (1702 vs 1405) against Sampdoria's poor away form (0.83) strongly support the market still underestimating the home side despite short price.

odds available at 09:45

Both the expected goals and ELO models strongly align in favour of a home win, generating fair odds around 1.46 compared to the market's generous 1.73. Palermo's excellent short-term form and strong home goal difference further support this significant value gap.

odds available at 09:45

Palermo are strongly favoured by recent form, medium-term form, goal expectation, goal-difference modelling and ELO. The market implies 57.8%, but the aligned fair-odds signals put their win chance closer to the mid-60s.

odds available at 09:45

All statistical models consistently estimate a fair home win price of 1.46, creating strong value against the market price of 1.73. Palermo is in outstanding recent form, winning all four competitive matches this season, and will benefit from a highly partisan crowd with away fans banned.

odds available at 09:45

Every model agrees Palermo should be around 1.46, well below the 1.73 offered. Excellent home form, a huge ELO edge over a struggling Sampdoria, and strong expected goals all align for clear back value.

odds available at 09:45

Palermo have dominant short- and medium-term form, a substantial ELO advantage and much stronger goal projections. Multiple models price the home win shorter than the market, supporting a clear value case.

odds available at 09:45

Every model aligns: strong home form (2.67 vs 0.83), a huge ELO gap of nearly 300 points, and both the form and ELO models price Palermo around 1.46 against a market of 1.73. Expected goals also heavily favour the hosts (roughly 2.0 vs 0.7), and research confirms Sampdoria are enduring a difficult period.

odds available at 09:45

Palermo's outstanding recent form of 2.67 points per game combined with a near-300-point ELO rating advantage and a Poisson goal expectation of 1.97 to 0.66 makes them a strong home favourite. All three model types independently price the home win around 1.46, well below the market's 1.73.

odds available at 09:45

All models align on the home side: outstanding short-term home form (2.67 points per game versus 0.83), clearly superior goal expectation, and a large ELO advantage put the fair home win price around 1.46-1.61, while the market offers 1.73. Sampdoria's away form is poor and they concede heavily, so this is a multi-signal edge at a short price.

odds available at 09:45

Every signal aligns on a strong home edge: outstanding short- and medium-term home form against very poor away form, high home expected goals versus low away output, a large ELO gap, and goal-difference models all pointing the same way. Fair value clusters near 1.46 while the market offers 1.73, a clear and well-supported mispricing.

odds available at 09:45

Palermo enters in dominant form with an average of 2.67 points per game over their last six matches compared to Sampdoria's 0.83 points per game. Short-term Poisson xG, medium-term form, ELO strength ratings, and goal-difference models all consistently value Palermo to win around 1.46 to 1.61, presenting strong back value against the market price of 1.73. External team news further confirms Sampdoria is missing several key players due to injury.

odds available at 09:45

Very strong short-term home form with massive ELO rating advantage. Poisson expects 1.97 home goals versus 0.66 away, and the model's predicted odds of 1.46 are well below the market's 1.73, creating clear value.

odds available at 09:45