Model fair for over 2.5 is 4.3–4.7, implying a strong under. Poisson sums around 1.6 support a tight, low‑event match.

odds available at 09:45

This profiles as a low-event match: both recent goal projections are very modest and the expected-goals numbers are low on both sides. The models also lean against both teams scoring, so the under is priced too generously.

odds available at 09:45

Both teams are struggling creatively, averaging less than one expected goal per game across both recent and medium-term windows. Statistical projections strongly favour a low-scoring affair, making the market price of 1.64 for under 2.5 goals highly appealing against fair odds estimated around 1.35.

odds available at 09:45

Both teams project for low attacking output, and the short- and medium-term goal models make over 2.5 goals much less likely than the market suggests. The recent scoring profile supports a cagey match rather than the market's higher total.

odds available at 09:45

Both windows project fewer than 1.7 combined goals and imply only about a 21-23% chance of over 2.5. The offered price requires the under to land just 61.0% of the time.

odds available at 09:45

Both windows put fair under 2.5 odds near 1.28-1.31 (roughly 77-79% probability) against a 61% market-implied chance, with a combined expected goals figure of only about 1.7. Two low-scoring Greek sides strongly align with an under here.

odds available at 09:45

Both teams project below 1.0 xG each (0.83 + 0.83 = 1.66 total), and the model's fair odds for Over 2.5 are 4.28-4.71, implying only a 21-23% chance of a high-scoring game. The market's Under 2.5 price significantly underrates the likelihood of a low-scoring match.

odds available at 09:45

Both sides project well under a goal each in the Poisson model over both windows, producing very long fair odds for over 2.5. The market under price still leaves a clear edge on a low-event profile.

odds available at 09:45