PAOK are strong favourites but Kalamata contribute little going forward; Poisson totals sit near 2.6 xG. The goal models imply ~70%+ for Under 3.5, above the market’s ~61%.

odds available at 09:45

The analysis points towards a very one-sided match, with PAOK expected to score over two goals while the struggling away side is expected to score just 0.5. The probability of both teams not scoring is therefore high, and the model's fair odds for this outcome are significantly lower than the market price.

odds available at 09:45

PAOK demonstrates dominant short-term and medium-term form, with strong ELO ratings and Poisson expected goals significantly favoring them. The market underestimates their likelihood of winning, as the predicted fair odds are much lower than the offered back price.

odds available at 09:45

PAOK's short and medium-term form is dominant (2.33 and 2.5 points per game) against a Kalamata side averaging just 0.5, and the ELO gap (1803 vs 1461) plus Poisson expected goals of 2.12 vs 0.5 all point to a comfortable home win. The market price of 1.24 still offers value against a fair probability around 84%.

odds available at 09:45

The away attack projects very low, while the total-goals models point to a game that lands below four goals more often than the market price suggests. A strong home side can still control this without the match becoming a shootout.

odds available at 09:45

PAOK's Poisson expected goals of 2.12-2.19 alone approach the 2.5 threshold, and combined with Kalamata's expected 0.5 the model implies fair over 2.5 odds around 1.99-2.06. However, markets price it at 1.57, so the edge is thin — small stake only.

odds available at 09:45

The away team's extremely low short-term expected goals and poor recent form suggest they will struggle to score, making a clean sheet for the dominant home side highly probable.

odds available at 09:45

Kalamata are projected at only around half a goal across both windows, while PAOK are the dominant side. The fair both-teams-to-score price implies the market is overrating Kalamata’s chance of scoring.

odds available at 09:45

PAOK carry heavy home expected goals against a weak Kalamata defence, with the model fair value for over 1.5 goals around 1.34 versus a market price of 1.18. The strong home form and goal expectation support comfortable overs value here.

odds available at 09:45

The market implies 60.6%, whereas both analysis windows estimate roughly a 72-73% chance of fewer than four goals. Combined expected goals are below 2.7, with Kalamata projected to contribute only 0.5.

odds available at 09:45

The goal models project a low-scoring match — Kalamata's attacking output is minimal (~0.5 expected goals) and both sample windows put the fair under 2.5 price near evens, while the market offers 2.68. The market appears to be pricing in a bigger PAOK rout than the data supports.

odds available at 09:45

Kalamata's poor away form and low expected goals make both teams to score unlikely. The analysis shows Kalamata struggling to score against PAOK's strong home defense, with a 65.6% probability versus the market's 57.1% implied probability.

odds available at 09:45

PAOK's expected attacking output is high while Kalamata's is close to zero, giving a total-goals projection closer to two than four. Under 3.5 goals therefore looks more likely than the market price implies.

odds available at 09:45

Kalamata's expected goals are extremely low in both recent windows while PAOK's ELO rating and home form mark them as heavy favourites, supporting a clean sheet for the home side. The market price on BTTS No offers a better return than the model's fair assessment of this low-scoring-away-team scenario.

odds available at 09:45

The Poisson model expects about 2.6 to 2.7 total goals, and the fair odds for over 3.5 imply roughly a 72-73% chance of under 3.5, compared with the market's 60.6%. Kalamata contribute very little going forward.

odds available at 09:45