The attacking projections are very strong for both teams, especially in the recent sample, and both sides arrive in good form. The over line is still priced above the statistical fair range, so this remains a good goals bet.

odds available at 09:45

The Poisson model projects over four expected goals based on recent explosive offensive form from both teams, highlighting a clear edge on the overs.

odds available at 09:45

Both sides arrive with 2.17 points-per-game form and positive goal differences, and the Poisson model prices over 2.5 goals at around 1.2-1.5 across the two windows versus a market price of 1.64. The expected-goal totals are high in both samples, and the value survives rather than depending on one window.

odds available at 09:45

Both the short and medium-term windows price over 2.5 goals shorter than the market (1.22 and 1.49 vs 1.64), with combined expected goals of nearly 4.5 in recent matches. Both sides are in strong attacking form, though I've trimmed the stake slightly as previews note Paris FC's improved defence.

odds available at 09:45