PSG's Poisson xG of 3.00 over last 6 is exceptional, and even over 12 matches they average 2.58. The short-term over 3.5 model gives fair odds of 1.56 and the 12-match model 1.79 — both dramatically below the market's 2.12. PSG are in perfect form (3.0 PPG, +13 GD over 6) and even a moderate Lyon performance in an open game should produce goals. This represents genuine value in the preferred odds range.

odds available at 09:45

Paris St-G's dominant form and ELO rating (1890 vs 1582) make them overwhelming favourites. The predicted fair odds (1.44) are higher than the market price, indicating strong value.

odds available at 09:45

PSG's home xG is dominant at 3.00 (short-term) and 2.58 (medium-term), producing fair over 3.5 odds of 1.56-1.79 versus a market price of 2.12. PSG's perfect 3.00 PPG home form and +13 GD over 6 matches, combined with Lyon's contributing xG, gives a combined total well above 4.0 in both windows. The value is clear despite some Ligue 1 caution.

odds available at 09:45