Across windows the fair price for Over 3.5 is much shorter than market implies, pointing to value on the Under. Poisson totals suggest around three goals rather than a goalfest.

odds available at 09:45

While a high-scoring game is often expected from the home team, the statistical models for both short and medium-term windows suggest the market is overestimating the likelihood of four or more goals. The value lies in backing a lower-scoring affair than the odds imply.

odds available at 09:45

Paris St-G have dominant form (2.5 points per game over last 6) and a massive ELO advantage (1864 vs 1332), with all models pricing them well below the market's 1.18. The Poisson expected goals (2.64 vs 0.65) and goal difference (+7 in last 6) confirm a huge mismatch against a Nantes side in poor form.

odds available at 10:45

The Poisson model suggests fair odds for over 2.5 goals at about 1.57, implying a 36% chance for under. The market offers 3.80 for under, indicating value given the home team's high expected goals but low away scoring threat.

odds available at 09:45