PSG have a perfect short-term form score of 3.0 and their Poisson expected goals are 3.00 for the home side alone, with the model placing fair odds for over 2.5 goals at 1.20 over the last 6 matches and 1.34 over 12. The market's 1.48 significantly underestimates the probability of a high-scoring game when PSG are averaging nearly 3 xG per match and have a +22 goal difference over 12 games. Toulouse's away form is modest but PSG's attacking output makes this an expected-goals-driven value play.

odds available at 09:45