The goal projections are very low in both windows, with both attacks rated modestly and the BTTS numbers also pointing against an open game. The market still looks too high on three goals or more.

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The market implies 62.5%, but the recent and medium-term goal projections are both very low. Both teams have weak scoring profiles and poor goal differences, making under 2.5 look underpriced.

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Both teams have very low expected-goals numbers (combined roughly 1.3-1.4) and negative goal differences, with both sample windows pricing over 2.5 goals at 5.9-6.7 against a market of 2.60 — a strong, consistent low-scoring signal.

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Genoa's away goal expectation is a dire 0.33 over the last six and their goal difference is strongly negative, yet the market prices them as away favourites. Every model, including ELO, rates Parma's fair price well below 3.30, making the home win value.

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Both teams show very low recent expected goals and weak scoring form, so the fair price for over 2.5 is extremely long. That implies a much higher under probability than the market is offering, justifying a small under stake after haircutting the most extreme model reading.

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Both teams show weak recent attacking output and very low expected-goals figures, with poor goal differences on both sides. The goal-based models project a low-scoring match, making under 2.5 goals attractive at this price.

odds available at 09:45