Both sides’ attacking output is modest and medium-term trends point to a low-total game. The fair price for the under is well shorter than even money.

odds available at 09:45

Both teams have poor attacking output with Parma's Poisson xG at just 0.75-1.17 and Sassuolo at 1.0 across both windows. The combined expected goals range from 1.75 to 2.17, and Parma's negative goal difference over both 6 and 12 matches reinforces a low-scoring profile. The fair Under 2.5 odds should be around 1.50-1.60, making the market price of 1.99 generous.

odds available at 09:45

This projects as a low-event Serie A match, with modest expected goals and weak medium-term attacking output on both sides. The numbers make the over price too short, so under 2.5 goals is the value side.

odds available at 09:45

Both sides have struggled offensively, producing a combined expected goals total well below 2.0 over recent and medium-term matches. The models heavily favour the under with the fair price for over 2.5 goals drifting significantly, making the 1.99 offered for unders excellent value.

odds available at 09:45

Both teams show poor attacking form with low Poisson xG projections (1.17 and 1.0 over 6 matches). The predicted odds for Under 1.5 are 1.57 over 6 matches and 1.92 over 12, both far below the generous market price of 3.95. Goal-difference model also points to tight, low-scoring game.

odds available at 09:45