Partick have excellent short-term form (2.33 over 6) with Ayr in very poor form (0.33), backed by a +6 GD differential. The ELO model gives Partick fair odds of 1.44, and the short-term form/GD models converge around 1.63, yet the market offers 1.60 — still providing value given the weight of multiple aligned signals.

odds available at 09:45

The ELO model strongly suggests value on a Partick win, reflecting a significant difference in team quality. This is further supported by Partick's excellent home form compared to Ayr's struggles on the road, and Partick are unbeaten in their last six meetings with Ayr. [9]

odds available at 09:45

Partick's excellent recent form and strong goal difference, combined with Ayr's poor form, point to a home win. The market price of 1.60 is higher than the model's fair odds, presenting a clear value opportunity.

odds available at 09:45

Partick's models all price them well shorter than 1.60 (fair odds 1.37-1.63), backed by a 306-point ELO edge, superior form both short and medium term, and much better expected goals output at home.

odds available at 09:45