Models expect a lower-scoring pattern with Livingston’s attack projecting modestly (away xG ~0.7), putting fair BTTS closer to 2.5–2.8. The market implies ~54% for BTTS; our estimate is nearer 39%, creating lay value.

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Poisson expected goals of 1.33 and 0.67 give a combined total of just 2.0, and the predicted fair odds for Over 2.5 sit at 2.73–3.10 across both windows — implying an Under 2.5 probability of roughly 65–67%. The market offers Under 2.5 at 1.93 (implied 51.8%), a clear and consistent gap driven by Livingston's weak attacking output and Partick's defensively solid home record.

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Recent performance data shows a significant gap between the two teams, with strong home form for Partick and very poor away form for Livingston. The form and goal-difference models both indicate a much higher probability of a home win than the current market odds.

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Partick's strong short-term form (2.0 points per game over last 6 matches) and home advantage are reflected in the predicted fair odds (1.89-1.90 for a home win). The market back price (2.46) offers value, and their goal difference (+2) is superior to Livingston's (-2).

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Strong short-term and medium-term home form, positive goal difference, and higher expected goals point to the home side being undervalued by the market.

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Partick's strong short-term and medium-term form combined with positive goal difference contrasts sharply with Livingston's consistently poor results and negative goal difference, indicating the market underestimates home win probability despite minor ELO model divergence.

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The scoring projections are modest in both samples, with the away side carrying limited attacking output and both teams to score rated relatively unlikely. That makes a lower-scoring match more probable than the market price suggests.

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The combined expected goals for both teams is notably low, sitting at 2.0 over the short term and 2.16 over the medium term. With the models projecting fair odds for over 2.5 goals well above the market, backing under 2.5 goals offers significant statistical value.

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Partick have significantly stronger short- and medium-term form (2.0 and 2.33 ppg vs 0.83 and 0.50) and a much better goal difference. Both the basic and goal-difference models price the home win around 1.89-1.90, meaningfully shorter than the 2.46 market back price.

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It is highly likely that at least one goal will be scored in this match, given the teams' recent form and goal-scoring records.

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Partick shows strong home form with 2.0 points per game over 6 matches and 2.33 over 12, but with modest Poisson expected goals of 1.33 and 1.41 respectively. Livingston's away form is poor at 0.83 points per game with only 0.67 expected goals. The goal-difference model favours Partick at 1.90, and the predicted over 2.5 odds are 3.10 (short-term) and 2.73 (medium-term), both implying under 2.5 is more likely than the market's 1.93 suggests. The ELO ratings are relatively close, suggesting a tight contest rather than a blowout.

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Recent form and Poisson projections indicate a tight, low-scoring match with total expected goals around 2.0. The market implies a much higher probability for over 2.5 goals, making the under a strong value play.

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The expected-goals projections are modest, especially for Livingston, and the fair over-2.5 price is far bigger than the market. That makes under 2.5 look undervalued at 1.93, with the market implying only 51.8%.

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Partick boasts exceptional short-term and medium-term form alongside strong Poisson expected goals, making the market price for a home win highly generous. Furthermore, Partick benefits from three key players returning from injury while Livingston has struggled for consistency following their relegation.

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Partick show strong short and medium-term home form with a large positive goal difference, while Livingston are poor on the road. The statistical home-win fair odds are meaningfully shorter than the market back price, offering value.

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The expected-goals totals are only 2.00 and 2.16 across the two windows, while both models make over 2.5 substantially less likely than the market does. The low both-teams-to-score projections further support a controlled, low-scoring match.

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The goal models in both windows imply over 2.5 goals is only around a 32-37% chance, meaning a fair under price near 1.5-1.6 versus the 1.93 on offer, and the Poisson projection expects only about two total goals. The both-teams-to-score model also leans strongly towards 'No', so the low-scoring signals are consistent.

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The Poisson model projects only 2.0-2.2 total goals, with the away side expected to score just 0.67-0.75. Predicted fair odds for over 2.5 goals are 2.73-3.10 across both windows, significantly higher than the market price of 2.02, indicating the market is overpricing goals. Livingston's very poor attacking form (0.5 points per game over 12 matches) reinforces a low-scoring expectation.

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Partick show much stronger recent form (around 2.0-2.3 points per game versus Livingston's 0.5-0.8), a clear expected-goals edge, and a far better goal difference. Two of the match-odds models price a home win as fair near 1.89 while the market offers 2.46; the ELO model is more cautious, so I temper my estimate, but the overall signal supports home value.

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Combined expected goals are only around 2.0–2.2 across both sample windows, with Livingston's attack especially weak. Fair odds for under 2.5 are much shorter than 1.93, and Partick's strong form is built on control rather than shootouts.

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The statistical goal models indicate low expected goal totals, driven by the visiting side's weak offensive output of under 0.8 expected goals per match across both short and medium-term windows. Model fair odds for under 2.5 goals range from 1.48 to 1.58, providing strong value against the market price of 1.93.

odds available at 09:45