This projects as a low-scoring Ligue 2 match, with both goal models landing well below the market line. The expected-goals numbers are modest for both teams and the fair prices make under 2.5 a solid value play.

odds available at 09:45

The statistical models point firmly to a low-scoring affair, with fair odds for over 2.5 goals predicted to be well above 3.00. This implies the true probability of under 2.5 goals is significantly higher than the market's 1.89 price suggests.

odds available at 09:45

The market implies 52.9%, while the supplied goal models make over 2.5 goals a clear outsider. Both teams have modest attacking projections, so the under price looks too big.

odds available at 09:45

Both recent windows project roughly two goals or fewer for the match, so under 2.5 is the statistically more likely outcome. The market under price still implies only about coin-flip probability.

odds available at 09:45

Poisson goal projections highlight a low-scoring match profile, with expected goals for both teams limited to approximately 1.0 goal or less per game. Model fair odds for over 2.5 goals are projected between 3.10 and 3.60, implying a high true probability of under 2.5 goals that comfortably exceeds market implied odds.

odds available at 09:45

Scoring projections are low in both recent and medium-term windows, pointing to a tight match. The under 2.5 selection is still priced below the implied true probability.

odds available at 09:45

Both teams create very little, with combined expected goals around 2.0 across both the short and medium windows. The model rates under 2.5 goals near 70%, well above the market-implied 53%.

odds available at 09:45

The goal models expect only about 1.8 to 2.0 goals in total over both windows, which suggests under 2.5 lands 68 to 72% of the time. The market only implies 53%. Both sides have poor form and weak attacks.

odds available at 09:45