Short-term form and xG strongly favour Pau at home, while baseline ratings have this closer to a pick’em. The price overrates the visitors.

odds available at 10:45

Both short and medium-term models project a very low-scoring match, indicating fair odds for this outcome are significantly lower than the market price. The expected goals figures for both teams are also very low, supporting the expectation of fewer than three goals.

odds available at 10:45

Both teams show low goal production — Pau's short-term Poisson xG is 1.33 home with Montpellier away at just 0.50, while the 12-match window shows 1.25 vs 0.67. The predicted over 2.5 fair odds are 3.61 (short-term) and 3.33 (medium-term), implying under 2.5 should be around 1.38-1.43 fair odds. At 1.97 back price the market significantly underestimates the low-scoring nature of this fixture.

odds available at 10:45