This is one of the clearest low-goal setups on the slate: both teams have very low attacking projections in both samples. The draw tendency is also strong, which fits a tight, low-scoring match.

odds available at 09:45

The expected-goals profile is very low for both sides, and the totals model heavily favours a match staying below three goals. I am using a conservative probability because the market gap is large, but 1.87 still looks generous.

odds available at 09:45

Both sides have very low recent scoring projections and weak attacking form, with expected goals well below two in total. The statistical fair price for fewer than 2.5 goals is much shorter than the market, so the under looks value.

odds available at 09:45

Expected goals are low for both sides over both windows, and the goals model puts Over 2.5 at 5.2 to 6.6. That implies roughly an 80% chance of Under. After a heavy discount I estimate 61%, against the market's 53.5%.

odds available at 09:45