Plymouth's ELO rating of 1674 is far superior to Burton's 1428, and the goal-difference model prices the home win at 1.74. With a +8 goal difference over 12 matches and 1.89 expected goals, the 1.59 back price represents solid value.

odds available at 09:45

Plymouth have a massive ELO advantage, superior form in both windows, and expected goals nearly double Burton's. Every model output points to a fair price well shorter than 1.59.

odds available at 09:45

Plymouth carry a large ELO advantage and clearly stronger home form and goal difference, with the ELO and short-term models both pricing a home win near 1.58-1.77. Back price of 1.59 offers modest value against an estimated true probability around 66%.

odds available at 09:45

All five models put Plymouth's fair price between roughly 1.58 and 1.79, consistently above the market's 1.59, indicating the home side is slightly overrated at around 63% implied versus a model consensus near 58%. The edge is thin but consistent across every model family, and the short lay price keeps liability low.

odds available at 09:45