Both short- and medium-term models make the over around 1.9 fair with solid BTTS support, indicating a higher-tempo matchup. The market price implies a much lower scoring probability than our estimates.

odds available at 10:45

Both teams have strong expected goals figures, with Derby's Poisson model projecting 1.65 goals and Portsmouth 1.16 goals per game, and the short-term model gives fair over 2.5 odds of 1.87. The market price of 2.44 is considerably higher than the model's fair value, suggesting the market is underestimating the probability of three or more goals in this match.

odds available at 10:45

The market favours the home side, but the away team has superior recent form over both short and medium-term periods. Furthermore, Poisson-based models, which analyze expected goals, suggest the away side should be the favourites, indicating the market is overvaluing Portsmouth's chances.

odds available at 10:45

Derby's recent form and expected goals are slightly better than Portsmouth's. The market odds of 3.70 offer value given the predicted probabilities, especially considering Derby's away performance.

odds available at 10:45