ELO and baseline tendencies favour Pompey more than the market, with Poisson indicating a slight home chance-creation edge.

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Portsmouth holds a noticeable edge in recent goal difference and expected goals, alongside a stronger ELO profile compared to QPR. The market price is generous given the alignment of all predictive indicators in favour of the home side.

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The supplied goal projections are low across both time windows, and the fair prices make over 2.5 much less likely than the market suggests. At 1.79, the under implies 55.9%, which is below my estimate.

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Both windows project fewer than two total goals and price over 2.5 at longer than 3.30. QPR's weak attacking expectation makes the market's implied under probability look too low.

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Both teams project very low goal totals with Poisson xG of just 1.84 combined, and the goal models predict over 2.5 odds far higher than the market offers. The market is overpricing goals in this low-scoring matchup.

odds available at 09:45