PSV's Poisson xG is an extraordinary 3.06 per game over 6 matches and 2.93 over 12, with a goal difference of +20 in the medium term. The short-term fair odds for over 3.5 goals are 1.49 and medium-term 1.59, both well below the market back price of 1.85 — meaning the 'Under 3.5' is substantially overpriced. Laying the under at odds of 2.12 gives value when the true probability of under 3.5 goals is around 40% or less.