The ELO model strongly favours QPR with predicted odds of 1.77, significantly lower than the market back price of 1.97. The home team also shows better medium-term form and a stronger goal difference, aligning with the value case for a home win.

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Despite poor recent form, QPR have a significant ELO advantage and the goal-difference model rates them much higher than the market suggests. The market appears to be overreacting to short-term results.

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Both Poisson models project combined expected goals of 4.18 (short-term) and 3.95 (medium-term), giving predicted fair odds of 1.27-1.32 for over 2.5 goals versus market odds of 1.65. Cardiff have had BTTS in 5 straight games and QPR in 6 of their last 10, confirming both teams' attacking output. Clear value with consistent signals.

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Both short-term and medium-term goal projections make this a notably higher-scoring game than the market price suggests. The expected goals for both teams are strong and the numbers also point toward both sides getting on the scoresheet, which supports the over.

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Both sides exhibit exceptionally high short-term expected goals, combining for over four projected goals per match recently. The statistical fair odds for over 2.5 goals sit around 1.30, making the market price of 1.65 extremely generous.

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The ELO model heavily favours QPR at home, but the short-term form and goal difference models tell a different story. Cardiff have better short-term form and superior goal difference, while the Poisson model gives Cardiff higher expected goals. The goal-difference model prices Cardiff at 3.09 fair odds, making the market price of 3.90 look generous. This may be a case where the ELO rating is failing to capture recent momentum.

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The goal models price over 2.5 well shorter than the market, with both recent and medium-term expected goals pointing to a high-scoring game. The market implies 60.6%, while the attacking projections and strong both-teams-to-score signal support a higher true chance.

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Both six-match and twelve-match models price both teams scoring substantially shorter than the market. Goal expectations are high for each side across both periods, supporting a clear edge over the 61.0% market probability.

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Both attacks are producing strong recent expected goals (QPR 1.79 at home, Cardiff 2.39 away over the last six), and the goal model prices over 2.5 at 1.27-1.32 across both windows versus 1.65 on offer. The fair probability is around 75%, well above the market's 61%.

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Both short- and medium-window Poisson xG are elevated for each side, producing very short fair BTTS odds. That points to a true BTTS probability well above the market’s roughly 61% implied chance.

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Both teams demonstrate high-scoring statistical profiles, with combined short-term Poisson expected goals reaching 4.18 and medium-term expected goals at 3.95 per match. Poisson models value Over 2.5 Goals at fair odds of 1.27 and 1.32, creating substantial value against the market price of 1.65.

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