The market prices QPR like a clear favourite, but the 12‑match trend and the ELO view have this closer to a coin flip, and short‑term expected‑goals lean slightly to Derby. That makes the home side too short, so I’m happy to oppose.

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Every statistical model — the Poisson/form model (fair 3.07), the medium-term model (2.23), the ELO model (2.06), and even the most QPR-friendly goal-difference model (1.96) — places QPR's fair odds above the market price of 1.71, consistently implying the market overestimates QPR's win probability. External research confirms QPR have five attacking players injured (including Chair, Saito, Lamptey, Burrell, Dembele) and have failed to win any of their last five home matches, further supporting the statistical picture. Derby's heavy injury list is a partial offset but does not overcome the alignment across all models pointing to a LAY.

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The market price implies QPR have a high chance of winning, but our models disagree. The ELO model suggests fair odds closer to 2.06, and QPR's poor short-term form does not justify their position as strong favourites.

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QPR's short-term form (0.83 over last 6 matches) and ELO rating (1541 vs Derby's 1421) suggest they are undervalued by the market. The predicted fair odds for a QPR win (2.06 from ELO model) are significantly lower than the market back price (1.71), indicating value. Derby's poor recent form and goal difference further support this.

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The ELO model makes QPR a clear favourite (fair odds around 2.06 versus the market's 1.71), and the goal-difference model is even stronger at roughly 1.96. QPR's medium-term form is better than Derby's and the visitors have a poor recent goal difference, so the market price looks generous.

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The statistical projections strongly suggest the market is overvaluing the home side, with short and medium-term predicted fair odds for a home win sitting at 3.07 and 2.23 respectively. With QPR displaying poor short-term home form, laying them at the extremely short market price of 1.72 offers significant value.

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The ELO and medium-term form models both favour QPR clearly, and the goal-difference model prices a home win even shorter than the market. Derby sit bottom-three in the relegation zone and arrive heavily depleted, missing their main striker and several defenders through injury, while QPR are unbeaten in four. At 1.71 (58.5% implied) there is a modest but genuine edge against a ~61% true probability.

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The market gives QPR a 58.1% win probability, but every supplied match-result model prices them longer than the market. Weak short-term home form and only a modest projected scoring advantage make QPR too short at this price.

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The market prices QPR as a strong favourite, but their short-term form is poor and recent goal expectation does not show a clear home advantage. The ELO and medium-term indicators only justify a modest home edge, so the fair home price looks closer to or above 2.00 rather than 1.72.

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The market prices QPR as a heavy favourite around 58%, but the ELO model, medium-term match odds model and goal-difference models all cluster closer to even or only a mild home edge. Short-term home form is also weak, so the true win chance looks nearer high-40s than high-50s.

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The home side is priced close to 58% by the market, but the short-term form and expected-goals picture points to a much more open contest. Even the strength rating and medium-term measures only support the home team modestly, so the home win looks too short.

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The market prices the draw at 4.20 (23.8% implied), but the statistical, goal-difference and ELO models all rate it nearer 26-28%, and recent form and goal difference between the sides are close. That consistent across-model gap makes the draw the value side.

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All five models (short-term, medium-term, the two goal-difference models and ELO) put the draw at fair odds between 3.53 and 3.91. That is roughly a 26-28% chance, against 23.8% implied by the 4.20 price. The models also disagree on who wins, and the Poisson goal expectation is fairly low, which both point towards a tight game. Research found nothing that rules the bet out: QPR have drawn their last four league games.

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The market makes QPR a 58% chance to win, but every model fair price (basic match model, goal-difference model and ELO) puts a QPR win closer to 45-50%, with QPR's short-term home form poor at under a point per game. Derby's away results have been mediocre but the price on QPR is too short relative to the data, so I'm betting against the home win.

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Poisson model expects over 1.5 goals about 73% of the time, but the market prices it as 84% likely, indicating lay value.

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Every model in the analysis prices a home win higher than the current market lay price of 1.72, including the ELO model (2.06), the short-term goal-difference model (1.96), and the medium-term statistical model (2.23). QPR also trail Derby in both short-term form and six-match Poisson expected goals while missing several injured attacking regulars.

odds available at 09:45