The away team has abysmal recent form and very low expected goal projections across all timeframes. The market is significantly overestimating their chances, making a lay bet highly attractive.

odds available at 09:45

Both teams have weak attacking projections, with the shorter-term goal model especially low. The fair odds point to over 2.5 being too short, making under 2.5 value at 1.79.

odds available at 07:45

Ayr's recent form is very weak and Queens Park have the stronger ELO rating. Every match-result model places Ayr's win probability well below the 41.0% implied by the lay price.

odds available at 09:45

Both teams are barely creating chances, with recent expected goals of just 0.67 and 0.5, and the goals models put over 2.5 at fair odds of 3.1-8.8 against a market 2.16. Both sample windows strongly favour a low-scoring match versus the 56% the under implies.

odds available at 07:45

Both sides have very low recent expected goals and awful short-term scoring form, so the totals models are strongly under. Market under price still leaves a meaningful gap to a low-teens over probability on recent evidence.

odds available at 07:45