Poisson totals are sub‑2.3 and both windows make Over 2.5 a bigger price than the market, indicating under value. BTTS also shades to No, reinforcing a lower-scoring matchup.

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Inverness CT shows better short-term form (1.5 vs 0.5) and ELO rating (1503 vs 1406). The predicted fair odds for an away win (1.61-2.19) are lower than the market back price (1.78), suggesting value despite the home advantage.

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Inverness have far stronger short-term form (1.5 vs 0.5 points per game) and a much better goal difference, while Queens Park's Poisson expected goals are just 0.5. The match-odds model gives Inverness fair odds around 1.61, so the 1.78 back price offers value.

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The home side's attacking projection is low in both samples, and the combined expected goals remain modest overall. Both the short-term and medium-term goal models price the under as a clear favourite, so odds against are attractive.

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The data points towards a tight, low-scoring match, with fair odds for Over 2.5 goals projected well above 2.50 across both the short and medium-term sample windows. Queens Park's short-term goal expectation is an anemic 0.50, giving us a substantial edge on the Under 2.5 goals market at odds against.

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The goal projections are modest, especially for Queens Park, and both short- and medium-term totals estimates make four goals materially less likely than the market suggests. The market implies 71.4%, while the analysis supports an under probability above 80%.

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The market implies 49.5%, while the short- and medium-term models indicate roughly a 61-68% chance of under 2.5 goals. Low combined expected goals and weak both-teams-to-score projections provide aligned support.

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Poisson models across both short and medium windows project low goal totals, yielding fair odds of 1.47 and 1.64 for under 2.5 goals. Queens Park's low expected goal output at home strongly points toward a low-scoring game, providing solid value at 2.02.

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Inverness CT show clear away superiority with significantly better recent form and expected goals, while the market underestimates their chances relative to the statistical indicators.

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Both expected-goals windows project a combined total well below 2.5, and the model's over-1.5-goals pricing also implies most matches hover around exactly two goals, consistent with a low-scoring affair that the market's near even-money pricing underrates.

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Queens Park's home goal expectation is extremely low (0.5) and combined expected goals sit near 2.0 across both windows, giving under 2.5 a fair 1.5-1.6 against the 2.02 available. The low home attacking output is the main driver.

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Queens Park's attack has been very weak lately, with about 0.5 expected goals a game. Both goal-model windows make under 2.5 more likely than not (fair over prices of 3.11 and 2.57), and the BTTS model agrees. I've discounted the model gap heavily for caution, but there still seems to be modest value against the 49.5% the market implies.

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Queens Park's very low expected goals (0.5) and poor home form suggest few goals will be scored, making Over 2.5 goals unlikely. The totals model indicates the market is significantly overestimating the likelihood of a high-scoring game.

odds available at 08:45