St Johnstone demonstrate strong away form (1.83 points per game over last 6, 1.92 over last 12) and a significant ELO advantage with fair odds of 2.11, though the goal-difference model gives them 1.94 and form models as low as 1.70. Queens Park's home Poisson xG of just 0.83 over 12 matches suggests limited scoring threat. At 1.48 the market may appear tight but all models consistently favour St Johnstone heavily, implying roughly 70-75% true probability.