Racing Santander's exceptional form and high expected goals output, despite a lower ELO rating, suggest they are undervalued. The market price of 3.80 offers value against a Villarreal side with moderate form and a less impressive goal difference.

odds available at 09:45

The market has priced Villarreal as clear favourites, yet both the ELO model and Poisson analysis strongly contradict this, estimating their fair odds at 3.01 and well above 8.00 respectively. The home side's excellent recent form and underlying expected goals metrics indicate laying the visitors offers substantial value.

odds available at 09:45

Racing's recent form is excellent at 2.5 points per game versus Villarreal's 1.0, and even the most conservative ELO model prices Racing at 2.99 — well below the market's 3.80. The market appears to be overvaluing Villarreal's reputation relative to current performance data.

odds available at 09:45

Home expected goals are extremely high across both windows with strong home form, pointing to a high-scoring game. Fair over 2.5 odds are much shorter than 1.74, so the total is underpriced even if the match winner is less clear.

odds available at 09:45