Short- and medium-term Poisson projections are 3.2–3.5 goals, putting the over 2.5 fair in the 1.47–1.62 range versus 1.98 available. Raith’s strong form and chance creation against Livingston align with a goals-over angle.

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The Poisson model projects a combined 3.50 expected goals in this fixture, driven by Raith's exceptional short-term attacking output (2.52 xG at home over six matches). Both the six- and twelve-game form models price Over 2.5 at fair odds of 1.47–1.62, implying a 62–68% true probability versus the market's 50.5%. Livingston's recent managerial sacking adds further uncertainty to their defensive organisation.

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Raith shows exceptional short-term form and a strong goal difference advantage. The predicted fair odds for a home win (1.41-1.63 across models) are lower than the market back price (2.68), suggesting value. The ELO model also slightly favors Raith, and their recent performance metrics are compelling.

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Raith's short-term form is excellent (2.67 points per game, +8 goal difference) with high Poisson expected goals (2.52), and the over 2.5 goals model gives fair odds of 1.47. The market's 1.98 is generous given the attacking metrics, though Livingston's lower expected goals (0.98) tempers confidence.

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Raith's Poisson expected goals are 2.52 at home over recent matches, giving a combined match xG of around 3.5 with Livingston's contribution. Both 6-match and 12-match models price Over 2.5 at fair odds of 1.47-1.62, well below the market's 1.98. Raith are 2nd, averaging nearly 1.6 goals per game this season, and Livingston recently changed manager, adding potential defensive instability.

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Raith's recent attacking numbers are strong and the total-goals projections are high across both sample windows. Both models for this market make over 2.5 shorter than the current price, so the market still looks a little generous.

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Raith boast excellent recent form and strong underlying metrics, generating a high number of expected goals over their last six matches. Both short and medium-term statistical models price a home win significantly lower than the generous odds currently offered by the market.

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Raith's short-term form is excellent (2.67 ppg) with a strong home xG of 2.52 and a +8 recent goal difference, while Livingston have been underwhelming. The Poisson and form-based models rate Raith heavy favourites around 1.4-1.6, so 2.68 looks well over the true price even after the ELO model (which weights Livingston's higher baseline rating) is factored in.

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The home team boasts outstanding recent form and high expected goals, driving a strong short-term trend for high-scoring matches. The Poisson goal expectations clearly point towards a high-scoring game, providing good value against the market price.

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The Poisson goal expectation is comfortably above three goals across the recent samples, and the fair odds for over 2.5 are shorter than the market price. Raith's strong attacking form reinforces the value case.

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Raith is in outstanding attacking form, averaging a high expected goal rate of 2.52 at home. Both the 6-match and 12-match models suggest fair value for Over 2.5 goals is below 1.62, making the market price of 1.98 a clear value opportunity.

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Raith's strong recent home form and high expected goals point to fair odds well below the offered 2.68. Both the short and medium-term match-odds models rate the home side around 1.4-1.6, and Raith carries a clearly superior goal difference, suggesting the market is underrating the hosts.

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The goal models project combined expectations of 3.50 and 3.19, with fair over 2.5 prices of 1.47 and 1.62. A 64% estimate provides a clear edge over the market-implied 50.5%.

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Both teams display strong attacking metrics, generating expected goal projections well above 3.0 goals per match across both 6-match and 12-match evaluation windows. Statistically derived fair odds for over 2.5 goals range from 1.47 to 1.62, offering clear value in the market price of 1.98.

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Exceptional short-term home form and high expected goals contrast with market's conservative odds, indicating underestimation.

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Raith's recent home form, goal difference and expected-goals profile are strongly positive, while the opposition has struggled over the medium term. The market's near-even pricing underestimates the home side's current momentum.

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Raith's attack has been in excellent recent form with a high expected-goals rate in both the short and medium term, while Livingston's defence has been leaky, and both statistical windows consistently price the over 2.5 goals outcome well above the market's implied probability. The alignment between short-term and medium-term goal models gives confidence in a higher-scoring match than the market expects.

odds available at 07:45