In‑form hosts with a clear ELO advantage and stronger Poisson totals; all three models lean firmly to a home win. The market underestimates Raith’s win probability.

odds available at 09:45

Raith enter in dominant home form against a struggling away side, supported by consistent short and medium-term results. Across Poisson goal expectation, goal difference projections, and ELO strength ratings, all model fair values indicate higher winning probability than the market implies. Backing Raith at 1.51 presents clear statistical value over the market-implied 66.2%.

odds available at 09:45

ELO gap is extreme (1598 vs 1306) and form plus Poisson models all project a home win near 1.4–1.5. Market at 1.51 fairly prices a strong home favourite with remaining edge.

odds available at 09:45

Raith Rovers demonstrate strong short-term home form score of 2.17 points per game and a dominant expected goals projection of 2.12 compared to Queens Park's 0.33. All statistical models project fair odds ranging from 1.26 to 1.47, indicating the market price of 1.51 understates the home team's true winning chance.

odds available at 09:45

Raith have a large ELO and goal-difference advantage, much better form and a very strong expected-goals edge. Queens Park's low attacking projection makes the home win value at 1.51.

odds available at 09:45