Rangers’ recent form is stronger and ELO marginally favours them. Multiple models make the home side shorter than market, though derby volatility tempers stake.

Rangers have been in perfect short-term form (maximum 3.0 points per game average over last 6 matches) with a goal difference of +9 in that span, while Celtic's short-term form has dipped to 1.67. The short-term statistical model and goal-difference model both strongly favour Rangers at around 1.78-1.84, and their adjusted ELO rating of 1801 is significantly higher than Celtic's 1673. The market price of 2.22 is considerably more generous than the model-implied fair value.