Poisson totals are around three goals and both teams’ scoring rates support a higher‑scoring game. The fair price for over 2.5 is shorter than the market.

odds available at 09:45

My models indicate a very significant mispricing by the market, favouring Rayo far more strongly than the odds suggest. Rayo possess a much higher ELO rating and are unbeaten in their last 12 home league games. Athletic Bilbao are also missing key attackers like Nico Williams and Oihan Sancet.

odds available at 09:45

Both teams have shown consistent attacking form, and the predicted BTTS odds suggest a higher likelihood of both teams scoring than the market implies. The Poisson model also supports this with reasonable expected goals for both sides.

odds available at 09:45

Rayo have the stronger recent form and better expected-goals outlook, and all three win models lean toward the home side. The market is too close to a coin flip here and is underrating the home win.

odds available at 09:45

All statistical models, including ELO and Poisson goal expectations, favor a home win and price it well below the available market odds. At 2.90, the market offers generous value on the hosts who show stronger short and medium-term form metrics.

odds available at 09:45

Strong short-term home form and Poisson goal expectations favor Rayo Vallecano, while the ELO model also prices them as clear favorites. The market appears to be underestimating the home side, offering significant value on the home win.

odds available at 09:45

The goal models make over 2.5 substantially shorter than the market, supported by combined expected goals of 3.61 recently and 2.98 over the longer window.

odds available at 09:45

All the statistical models rate a home win as clearly more likely than the market does, with fair odds clustered around 2.0-2.6 against a 2.90 offer. Rayo's recent home form is strong, they carry the higher expected-goals projection, and the ELO rating also leans to the home side.

odds available at 09:45

Home side shows strong form (2.0 last 6) and a clear ELO edge (1594 vs 1456) with model fair odds around 2.0. Market prices them near 2.90, a substantial underestimation of home advantage.

odds available at 09:45

Statistical models across Poisson expected goals, goal difference, and ELO all place fair odds for a home win between 1.96 and 2.21, highlighting significant value in the market price of 2.90. Athletic Bilbao are hampered by injuries to key creative figures Oihan Sancet and Nico Williams, while Rayo Vallecano enjoy solid short-term home form.

odds available at 09:45

Rayo are in much better recent form and create more at home, while the opponent's medium-term form is weak. The market price underestimates the home side.

odds available at 09:45

Both short-term and medium-term goal models project a notably higher chance of over 2.5 goals than the market's implied ~48%, supported by strong recent attacking output from both sides (combined Poisson expected goals near 3.6). No disqualifying news found in research.

odds available at 09:45

The form, goal-difference and ELO models all price Rayo between 1.96 and 2.59, well below 2.90. Rayo's home form is about twice as good as Athletic's poor recent away form, so the market's 34.5% looks too low.

odds available at 09:45