Short-term form, Poisson, and ELO all tilt to the hosts with fair prices around 1.8–2.0. Market odds of 2.64 look too pessimistic on a home win.

odds available at 09:45

Rayo's short-term form is dominant (2.0/3.0 over 6 games) vs Girona's poor recent form (0.5/3.0), with Poisson xG of 1.65 vs 0.83 in Rayo's favour. The short-term model gives a fair home win price of 1.75, and the ELO model 1.91 — both significantly below the 2.64 market price. Girona's goal difference is negative (-3 over 6 games) and medium-term indicators also favour the home side. Market-implied probability is 37.9%; the analysis supports a true probability around 47%.

odds available at 09:45

There is a strong consensus across all analysis models that Rayo Vallecano is underpriced. Their recent form is excellent, having won four of their last five matches, whereas Girona are in very poor form with three consecutive losses. Girona are also missing up to six players through injury and suspension which strengthens the case for a home win.

odds available at 09:45

Rayo Vallecano have strong form (2.0 points per game) against Girona's poor run (0.5 points per game), and the ELO model (1571 vs 1420) favours the home side. The predicted match odds models suggest fair value around 1.75-2.50, well below the 2.64 market price, creating a solid value opportunity.

odds available at 09:45

Rayo's short-term form of 2.0 points per game dwarfs Girona's 0.5, and the ELO ratings heavily favour the hosts (1571 vs 1420). The Poisson model gives Rayo 1.65 xG vs Girona's 0.83 over 6 matches. Multiple models price a Rayo win between 1.75 and 2.08 fair odds — the market at 2.64 implies just 37.9% probability, while a conservative blended estimate puts the true figure around 46%.

odds available at 09:45

Strong short-term home form and superior goal expectation for Rayo, combined with Girona's poor away trend, align with statistical models suggesting fair home odds around 1.9, showing the market underestimates Rayo's win probability.

odds available at 09:45

Rayo Vallecano's strong short-term form (2.00 points per game) and superior expected goals (1.65 vs 0.83) over the last six matches support a 57.1% probability of a home win, significantly higher than the market-implied 37.9%. ELO ratings and medium-term trends reinforce this edge.

odds available at 09:45

Short-term match-odds model prices Rayo at 1.75, with ELO at 1.91 — both significantly shorter than the 2.64 market. Rayo's recent form is notably stronger than Girona's and they have a 150-point ELO edge at home. Decent but not overwhelming aligned signal.

odds available at 09:45