Recent scoring trends are muted for both sides and the totals models price Over 2.5 around 2.7, implying a clear lean to the under. Home advantage by ELO doesn’t translate to a shootout.

odds available at 10:45

Rayo Vallecano have better recent form and a significantly higher ELO rating than Levante, with the ELO model placing fair odds at 1.88 — but the goal-difference model and short-term Poisson model suggest even greater home advantage. Levante have very poor recent form at 0.5 over the last 6 matches with a goal difference of -6, making the market odds of 1.75 for Rayo appealing value.

odds available at 10:45

While the home team is the favourite, multiple models including ELO and Poisson analysis suggest their fair odds should be higher than the current market price. This indicates the market may be overestimating their probability of winning against a struggling but capable opponent.

odds available at 10:45

Rayo Vallecano's home form and expected goals are superior to Levante's. The ELO model and predicted odds suggest the market is undervaluing their chances, providing value at 1.75.

odds available at 10:45

Rayo Vallecano has better recent form and a clear ELO rating advantage over Levante. The predicted fair odds of 1.88 suggest the market price of 1.75 offers value, with the home team's superior quality not fully reflected in the odds.

odds available at 10:45