Madrid’s recent form and xG are strong, and both short- and medium-term models put the Over near 60%. The market price looks cautious relative to the projected goal output.

Every model strongly agrees on a Real Madrid win: the Poisson model gives short-term expected goals of 2.39 vs 0.66, the ELO model sets fair odds at 1.26, and the form model at 1.32-1.41 — all significantly below the market's 1.35. Real Madrid's outstanding recent form (2.5 and 2.75 points per game over 6 and 12 matches) and massive goal difference advantage over Getafe's poor away record make this a high-confidence short-priced value back.