Both short- and medium-term projections price over 2.5 shorter than the market, with Poisson indicating a strong home attacking edge. Backing goals at 1.93 aligns with multiple supportive signals.

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Real Sociedad has a higher ELO rating and stronger Poisson expected goals, with the medium-term form also favouring them. The market price of 1.92 implies 52.1% probability, while the statistical models suggest a higher true win probability.

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Both Poisson model windows project combined expected goals of 2.96 to 3.26, with the home side generating nearly 2.0 xG alone. The model fair odds for over 2.5 are 1.76 (short-term) and 1.58 (medium-term), both well below the market price of 1.93, indicating the market underestimates goal probability. Real Sociedad have conceded in the vast majority of their recent home matches, supporting goals at both ends despite Celta's slow start.

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Both goal-model windows rate this total shorter than the market, and the expected-goals split gives the home side strong scoring potential on its own. Celta are still projected to contribute enough to keep this above the line often enough.

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Medium and short-term Poisson expected goals models project totals well above the 2.5 line, driven by strong attacking metrics from the home side. The fair odds models price the over significantly lower than the current market offering, providing a clear edge based on underlying chance creation.

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The short-term match odds model prices Sociedad at 1.66 and the medium-term at 1.59, both well below the market's 1.92. Poisson expected goals strongly favour the home side (1.97 vs 0.99) and ELO gives Sociedad a ~100 point edge. Clear value on the home favourite.

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The Poisson model gives Real Sociedad strong expected goals at home (1.97 over 6 games, 2.19 over 12) against Celta's weak 0.99/1.07. The predicted fair odds from form-based models cluster around 1.59-1.66, while the ELO model is more conservative at 2.20. The market at 1.92 sits between these estimates. Home advantage and attacking metrics support a modest back bet, though the ELO caution and both teams' negative goal differences warrant restrained staking.

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Real Sociedad's medium-term home form and higher ELO rating give them a clear statistical advantage. The model's fair odds suggest the market is slightly undervaluing the home side's probability of securing a win.

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The Poisson projections are strong for goals, with Real Sociedad carrying a high attacking expectation and both recent and medium-term fair prices shorter than the market for over 2.5. The offered price implies 51.8%, which appears too low against the goal model.

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Multiple models favour Real Sociedad: the main model and medium-term Poisson give fair odds around 1.59-1.66 driven by strong home expected goals (over 2.0) and better medium-term form. The market price of 1.92 offers a clear gap versus model fair value.

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Real Sociedad's high expected-goal creation plus Celta's away threat makes over 2.5 a clear lean; both recent and medium-term totals models put fair odds well under the offered 1.93.

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Both recent and medium-term models price over 2.5 goals shorter than the market, with combined expected goals around 3.0 or higher. That supports a true probability above the 51.8% implied by the available price.

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Both sample windows agree on goals here: fair odds for over 2.5 are 1.58-1.76 versus a market price of 1.93, backed by combined Poisson expected goals of roughly 3.0-3.3. The both-teams-to-score model is also shorter than the market, so multiple aligned signals point to a higher-scoring game than the 52% market-implied probability suggests.

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Real Sociedad's home goal expectancy of 2.0-2.2 combined with Celta Vigo's away output of around 1.0 produces a combined total above 2.9 in both sample windows. Both the short and medium-term models price Over 2.5 well below the market's 1.93, indicating the market is underestimating the goal potential in this fixture.

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Expected-goals totals sit around three goals per game across both the recent six-match and twelve-match windows, driven by Real Sociedad's strong home attacking output (around two expected goals per game). Both projection windows rate over 2.5 goals as more likely than the market price implies, giving a consistent, explainable edge.

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Home attack expected goals are strong across short and medium samples while the away side still contributes enough to push totals toward three goals. Fair over 2.5 odds are shorter than the available price, giving a clear model-backed totals edge.

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Both short-term and medium-term statistical windows project strong expected goal metrics around 3.0 total goals, placing fair value odds for Over 2.5 Goals below 1.76. Real Sociedad's open tactical approach under Pellegrino Matarazzo creates abundant chances, offering clear BACK value at 1.93 against the market-implied probability.

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Real Sociedad benefit from home advantage with their attack markedly stronger than Celta Vigo's, creating plenty of scoring chances. The model predicts 60.2% chance for a home win but market implies 52.1%, giving a clear value edge.

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