Both windows price Over 2.5 around 1.4–1.7, yet the market is 2.54. High home expected goals and positive form point toward a game clearing the line.

odds available at 09:45

There is a strong consensus across all analysis models favouring a home win. Real Sociedad has superior short-term form, a significantly higher ELO rating, and a dominant expected goals forecast, indicating their fair odds should be considerably lower than the available market price.

odds available at 09:45

Short-term Poisson models generate an expected goal total well above 3.5 for this match, heavily driven by strong home scoring metrics. The market appears to be vastly underestimating the probability of a high-scoring affair, creating substantial value backing over 2.5 goals.

odds available at 10:45