Reims have a strong short- and medium-term edge on form and Poisson xG, and a large ELO advantage backs the hosts. Our fair price sits around 1.55–1.65, so 1.74 is generous.

odds available at 09:45

Reims carry excellent short-term form (2.0 avg pts, +7 GD over 6 games) against a Guingamp side with zero points and -3 GD. The ELO model gives Reims fair odds of 1.45, goal difference model 1.40–1.61, and the Poisson xG model 1.32–1.71, all significantly tighter than the market's 1.74 back price, indicating clear value on the home side.

odds available at 09:45

The models show a significant edge on a Reims victory, which is backed by a huge disparity in form; Reims are in great home form while Guingamp's away form is exceptionally poor. [4, 10] The ELO rating gap between the two sides is also very large, reinforcing the case for a home win.

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Reims demonstrates dominant short-term form (2.0 over last 6 matches) and a significant Poisson expected goals advantage (2.39 vs 0.66). The predicted odds (1.32) are much lower than the market back price (1.74), suggesting strong value.

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Reims have been in dominant form, with a strong goal difference and a much higher ELO rating than a struggling Guingamp side. The market price of 1.74 is higher than the model's fair odds, presenting clear value on the home win.

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Consistently lower fair home odds across models than the market price, backed by excellent recent home form and large ELO rating advantage.

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Reims have the clear edge in recent form, goal difference and overall team strength, while Guingamp come in with very poor short-term results. All three win models make the home side shorter than the market does.

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Reims are displaying dominant short-term form and vastly superior expected goals. With the ELO rating pointing to fair odds well below the market price, backing the home side represents excellent value.

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All three model variants (base, goal-difference, ELO) rate Reims well shorter than 1.74, with fair odds ranging from 1.32 to 1.71. Reims have a huge ELO gap (1694 vs 1389), superior recent form, and much stronger expected goals output at home.

odds available at 09:45

Reims boast excellent recent home form and a dominant expected goals advantage over a Guingamp side struggling on the road, making the market price of 1.74 highly generous against our fair value assessment.

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Reims have strong short- and medium-term form, a major goal-difference edge, superior ELO strength and the expected-goals profile favours them heavily. The market's 57.5% implied probability looks too low against those aligned signals.

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Multiple models strongly favour Reims: the ELO model, goal-difference model and both Poisson windows all put fair odds around 1.40-1.71, well below the 1.74 back price. Reims show excellent home form and a large ELO edge over a poor, out-of-form Guingamp side.

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Reims are in strong home form with high expected goals, while Guingamp have no recent away wins and a negative goal difference; all fair-value models place Reims below 1.74, making the back price attractive.

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Reims hold a clear form, goal-difference and ELO advantage, with Guingamp winless across the recent window. Every principal model makes the home side shorter than the available market price.

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Every model — form, goal difference and ELO — prices Reims between 1.32 and 1.71 against a market of 1.74. Guingamp are winless over their last six with a negative goal difference, while Reims average two points per game and carry a big expected-goals edge.

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Reims have been in excellent recent form with maximum points from their last six matches, while Guingamp have failed to register a single point. The ELO rating gap of over 300 points and dominant Poisson goal expectations all support a home win that the market is underpricing.

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All models price Reims between 1.32 and 1.71 for the home win, shorter than the 1.74 on offer. Guingamp have lost all six recent matches in the sample with an expected-goals output below 0.7, while Reims combine strong form with a +7 goal difference — the market is underestimating the hosts.

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Home side shows strong short- and medium-term form against an away side with near-zero recent points. A large ELO gap and all major models price the home win clearly shorter than the market, creating a clean multi-signal edge at a relatively short price.

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Reims are performing strongly with impressive short-term expected goals and hold a major ELO rating lead over Guingamp, who have suffered six consecutive defeats. Every statistical model values Reims well below the market price of 1.74.

odds available at 09:45