Rennes rate well on the main numbers: stronger recent form, better attacking expectation in the short-term sample, and a higher underlying strength rating. The market price is offering close to even-money on a side the analysis makes a more solid favourite.

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Rennes boasts superior short-term form and expected goals compared to Marseille, suggesting the market is underestimating the home side's current momentum.

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Marseille's attacking output has collapsed with just 0.33 expected goals in the short-term model, while the Poisson projection of 2.14 total goals suggests a low-scoring affair. The predicted fair odds for under 2.5 goals are well below the 2.78 available.

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Marseille's recent form is woeful (half a point per game and minimal goal expectation over the last six) while Rennes are in strong home form. Four of the five model fair prices for a home win sit between 1.35 and 2.13 against a market price of 2.06.

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Rennes show excellent recent form against Marseille’s very poor short-term record and minimal away expected goals. The ELO model also prefers the home side at a shorter price than the market, giving a clear multi-signal edge on Rennes.

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Rennes have strong recent home form while Marseille's short-term form is poor. The statistical models price Rennes closer to even money than the market does, creating modest back value.

odds available at 09:45