All five statistical models consistently indicate Besiktas' win probability is significantly overstated by the market. Short-term metrics show Rizespor's superior home expected goals (1.97 vs 1.49) and stronger recent form, while ELO and goal-difference models further validate the mispricing.

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Both the medium-term form model and ELO model put Besiktas as favourites (fair odds 2.29 and 2.45 respectively), while away goal difference of +10 over 12 matches indicates a clear strength edge. Market price of 2.12 still offers a small but defensible value gap.

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The predicted odds for under 2.5 goals are higher than the market back price, indicating potential value in backing under 2.5 goals.

odds available at 09:45

The statistical models strongly favour both teams scoring with predicted fair odds of 1.50 compared to market back price of 1.49. Home team generates 1.97 expected goals at home while away team manages 1.49 xG. Short-term home form is solid at 2.17 points per game. The value edge is thin but consistent across both 6-match and 12-match windows.

odds available at 09:45