This prediction is heavily based on the visitors' extremely poor recent form. Swindon have an away form score of just 0.17 and their expected goals based on the last 6 games is zero. Models that weigh recent performance heavily suggest Rochdale's odds should be much shorter, making the market price attractive.

odds available at 09:45

Swindon have lost their last six matches with a goal difference of -4 and a form score of just 0.17, while Rochdale are unbeaten in their last six. The Poisson model gives Swindon an expected goals figure of zero, and the ELO model prices Rochdale at 2.20, shorter than the market's 2.30.

odds available at 09:45

Short-term form and expected goals data heavily favour the home side, with the visitors creating virtually nothing in their recent matches. While the ELO strength difference is modest, the statistical projections imply a much higher probability of a home win than the market price suggests.

odds available at 09:45

The market implies Rochdale are only a 43.5% chance, while the recent form, goal-difference and Poisson goal expectation all favour them. Swindon’s recent numbers are weak, especially in attack, making the home price look too generous.

odds available at 09:45

Rochdale's recent form is far stronger, while Swindon have taken almost no points and carry a poor goal difference. The medium-term and goal-difference models both make Rochdale clear favourites rather than a 43.5% chance.

odds available at 09:45

Swindon's recent away form is dire (0.17 PPG with virtually no goals scored over the last six), while Rochdale's short-term and goal-difference models all price the home win well below the market's 2.30. Stake kept moderate given some anomalies in the supplied figures.

odds available at 09:45