Rodez are in better recent form with a positive goal trend and the ELO model makes them clear favourites. Multiple models price the home win well below the market.

odds available at 10:45

Rodez are in excellent form with 2.0 points per game over the last 6 matches and a +4 goal difference, while Bastia are struggling (1.0 ppg, -3 GD). The ELO model rates Rodez at 1643 versus Bastia's 1355, generating implied fair odds of just 1.48 for a Rodez win — dramatically below the market's 2.68. The goal-difference model similarly prices a home win at 1.53-1.74, highlighting substantial market mispricing.

odds available at 10:45

There is a massive discrepancy between the market odds and the model's predictions, particularly the ELO model which views Rodez as a very strong favourite. Rodez also boasts superior recent form and a significant ELO rating advantage over their opponents.

odds available at 10:45

Rodez has shown good home form with 2 points per game recently, while Bastia has struggled away. The ELO model gives Rodez a 68% chance (fair odds 1.48), making the market price of 2.68 significantly overvalued for the away side. Rodez's positive goal difference versus Bastia's negative one supports this assessment.

odds available at 10:45