Rodez carry exceptional short-term home form (2.67/3) and a dominant goal difference of +5 over 6 matches, with the ELO model setting fair odds at 1.41 and the goal-difference model at 1.26-1.46 — both significantly below the market's 1.74. Pau's away goal difference is a dismal -9 over 6 matches, and their Poisson projected xG is only 1.16. Multiple signals converge on clear home value.

odds available at 09:45

Rodez has strong short-term form and goal difference, with Poisson expected goals and ELO ratings supporting a home win. The market odds (1.74) are higher than the predicted fair odds (1.41-1.78), suggesting value.

odds available at 09:45

Rodez have strong recent form and a much better goal difference than Pau, with the ELO model strongly favouring the home side. The market odds of 1.74 offer value against the model's fair price of around 1.41-1.78.

odds available at 09:45

Rodez are in outstanding short-term form (2.67 points per game over 6 matches) with 8 goals in 3 league games this season, including a 5-2 away win at Nantes. The ELO gap is substantial (1705 vs 1379), with fair odds around 1.41. Pau have scored just 1 goal in 3 league games and sit 13th. Multiple models agree Rodez are underpriced at 1.74.

odds available at 09:45

Rodez lead on every metric: superior short and medium-term form, a much stronger ELO rating (1705 vs 1379), and higher expected goals. The ELO model prices them at 1.41 and the short-term model at 1.78, so 1.74 offers modest but consistent value.

odds available at 09:45

Rodez have excellent short-term home form and a massive ELO advantage, with fair odds near 1.41-1.78 across all models versus the market's 1.74. Strong positive goal difference against a weak, poor-scoring Pau side backs the case.

odds available at 09:45

A massive 326-point ELO gap, excellent home form (2.67 points per game), and Pau's dreadful goal difference (-13 over twelve matches) all point to Rodez being undervalued at 1.74.

odds available at 09:45

ELO gap is large in Rodez's favour and short-term home form is excellent, with goal-difference models also strongly backing a home win. Market price still leaves a clear gap versus a blended fair probability around the low-to-mid 60s.

odds available at 09:45