Short-term form model gives Roma a fair price of 1.46, medium-term 1.61, goal-difference model 1.50, and ELO model 1.62 — all below the market's 1.56 back price. Roma's recent form is 2.33 PPG versus Lazio's 1.67, with a superior short-term goal difference of +7 versus -1. The Derby della Capitale context could introduce noise, but the statistical signals are consistently aligned.

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All statistical models indicate a higher probability of over 2.5 goals than the market odds suggest. Roma are in excellent attacking form at home, with a very high expected goals figure in their last six matches, pointing towards an open, high-scoring game.

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Roma shows strong short-term and medium-term form, with a significant goal difference advantage and higher Poisson expected goals. The ELO model also favors Roma, and the market odds are slightly higher than the predicted fair value.

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Roma's short-term form is excellent at 2.33 points per game with a +7 goal difference, and the Poisson model expects 2.39 home goals. The ELO model and goal-difference model both point to fair odds well below the market's 1.56, indicating the market is underestimating Roma's chances in this derby.

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Roma's short-term Poisson expected goals of 2.39 at home is very high, and both windows show fair O2.5 odds of 1.52 and 1.82, both below the market price of 1.99. Roma's excellent recent home form (2.33 PPG over 6 matches, +7 GD) and strong home ELO rating point to a goals-heavy derby with an implied edge of nearly 9 percentage points.

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Roma displays strong short-term home form and a clear goal-difference advantage in recent matches; the model's predicted fair odds sit notably below the available back price, indicating the market underestimates Roma's win probability.

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Roma show much stronger short-term form and significantly higher expected goals than Lazio, with a large ELO gap of over 230 points. All three model variants price Roma well below the market's 1.56, suggesting genuine back value on the home derby favourite.

odds available at 09:55

Derby matches often have a lower goal expectancy, and the predicted odds support a low-scoring outcome.

odds available at 09:55