Como hold superior short-term form (2.33 PPG vs 2.0 for Sassuolo) and a significantly better goal difference over 12 matches (+15 vs 0). The ELO model (1505 vs 1549) prices Como as slight underdogs at 2.20, but the Poisson model in the short window (1.32 home xG vs 1.97 away xG) and the short-term match odds model (1.91) strongly favour Como. The market back of 1.59 sits above the Poisson/short-form fair value, suggesting real value exists for a Como win.

odds available at 09:45

While Como are in excellent short-term form, all statistical models suggest the market has overpriced their chances of winning. The fair odds are estimated to be significantly higher, creating value in a lay bet against the short-odds favourite.

odds available at 09:45

Como's strong short-term form (2.33) and ELO rating (1645 vs 1549) suggest they are undervalued at 1.59. The predicted odds (1.91-2.20) are lower than the market price, indicating value.

odds available at 09:45

Despite the away team's strong recent away form, ELO and Poisson models suggest the market overestimates their win probability. The home team's competitive short-term form supports laying the favorite.

odds available at 09:45

Como's price is extremely short given the medium-term and ELO projections, which price them closer to even money. Sassuolo's competitive home rating means the visitors are significantly overvalued by the market here.

odds available at 09:45