Both short- and medium-term models lean to Sheff Utd with an attacking Poisson edge; the market price looks too long relative to model and ELO baselines.

odds available at 09:45

Sheffield United's medium-term form (1.58) and Poisson expected goals (2.04) are better than Birmingham's (1.0 and 0.91). The predicted odds (1.75) are lower than the market back price (2.46), indicating value. The ELO model also favors Sheff Utd (2.17 vs 3.86).

odds available at 09:45

Sheffield United rate better on the core numbers, with a clear expected-goals edge and stronger medium-term performance. The home win is priced bigger than all of the model views, so the market looks too cautious on the hosts.

odds available at 09:45

Sheffield United benefits from stronger underlying metrics and a decisive ELO rating advantage over Birmingham. The market odds misjudge the true likelihood of a home win, which all models price significantly shorter.

odds available at 09:45