Short- and medium-term expected goals point to a high-scoring game, with both teams’ attack metrics elevated. The market understates the goal probability relative to modelled fair odds.

Sheffield United's short-term Poisson expected goals of 2.39 at home is very high, and their recent form score of 2.5 is excellent. The statistical fair odds for over 2.5 goals sit around 1.40 based on short-term data, making the market price of 1.76 appear significantly generous. Coventry's poor recent form (0.83 average points per game) suggests they may be vulnerable to conceding, supporting a higher-scoring game.