Recent home/away form and medium-term trends suggest a near 50-50 game, not a strong away favourite. Even the ELO view implies a bigger fair price than the market, so Union SG look overrated.

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The ELO model clearly favours Union St Gilloise, and their medium-term goal difference is strong. The market price of 2.10 is generous compared to the model's fair odds around 2.41-2.61.

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The home team shows excellent recent form and positive goal difference, contradicting the market's strong preference for the visitors. With the models projecting the away odds to be much higher, laying Union St Gilloise at 2.14 represents a solid mathematical edge.

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The Poisson model and recent attacking form from both sides point to a high-scoring encounter, suggesting the market is underestimating the likelihood of three or more goals.

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All five statistical models suggest Union St Gilloise should be priced above 2.40, far higher than the market back price of 2.10. Sint Truiden holds a strong home advantage on their artificial pitch, and Union SG has undergone roster changes that are not yet reflected in the market's overestimation.

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The market implies a 46.7% away-win probability, but every statistical match-odds model rates Union lower. Sint Truiden have stronger recent and medium-term form, while the short-term goal expectations are equal.

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The market implies about 47% for the away win, but the form models rate this closer to a coin-flip or a slight home lean, and even the ELO model, which favours the visitors, prices them nearer 2.4. With Sint Truiden's recent form actually stronger than the visitors', laying the away favourite at 2.14 offers value at a controlled liability.

odds available at 09:45