The away side is in significantly better recent form and boasts a much healthier goal difference over both short and medium-term windows. The analysis of expected goals also favors CD Castellon, with multiple models suggesting their probability of winning is higher than the market odds imply.

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Multiple models strongly favour the away side. The Poisson model (6-match) predicts fair away odds of just 1.63, and the goal-difference model over 12 matches gives 1.78. Castellon's form is far superior (1.5 short-term, 1.25 medium-term vs Sociedad B's 0.5 and 0.67). The home side has a -12 goal difference over 12 matches while Castellon has +6. The ELO rating also slightly favours Castellon (1562 vs 1525).

odds available at 09:45

The scoring projections in both windows make a sub-three-goal game more likely than the market implies. Expected goals are only moderate overall and the home attack is rated quite weak, which supports the under.

odds available at 09:45

Expected goals models project an average match total well below 2.3 goals across both recent and medium-term windows. This statistical baseline makes under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.34 a strong value selection.

odds available at 09:45