Both teams show very low expected goals — the Poisson model gives combined xG of just 1.33 over 6 matches and 1.67 over 12. The fair over 2.5 odds are 6.65 (6-match) and 4.29 (12-match), far above the market's 2.18, meaning under 2.5 is heavily favoured by the models. Both teams have poor form and Eibar especially are goal-shy on the road. The market at 1.81 implies 55.2%; I estimate around 61% for under 2.5 based on the low xG profile. Conservative stake given mixed signals from the goal-difference model.

odds available at 09:45