Poisson expected goals are extremely low at 0.67 for Sociedad B and 1.00 for Granada, totalling just 1.67 expected goals. Both teams are in very poor short-term form (0.67 average points per game each). The model's fair value for over 2.5 goals is 4.28 (6-match) and 3.33 (12-match), yet the market offers only 2.02 for over 2.5 — implying the under 2.5 is significantly mispriced, with a true probability of around 65% versus the market-implied 51.5%.

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The predicted BTTS odds (~3.25) suggest the market is overestimating the likelihood of both teams scoring. Both teams have struggled to score consistently (poisson xG: 0.67 vs 1.0), and the 'No' selection at 2.26 offers value.

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Both teams are in poor form (0.67 points per game over the last 6 matches) and the Poisson model expects a combined xG of just 1.67 (short-term) to 1.91 (medium-term), well below the league average of 2.51 goals per game. The model-derived fair odds for over 2.5 goals are 4.28 (6-match) and 3.33 (12-match), implying under 2.5 probability of 70-77%, versus the market-implied 51.5%. The edge is supported by both form windows and the low expected goals from both sides.

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The predicted fair odds for Sociedad B to win are lower than the market odds, indicating potential value in backing them. Their recent form and goal difference also suggest a slight advantage.

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Both teams show very poor recent form and low expected goals, pointing to a tight, low-scoring affair. The statistical models heavily favor fewer than three goals, presenting clear value against a market that is pricing it near evens.

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Both short- and medium-term goal projections are below two total goals, while the models put over 3.5 at long fair odds. That supports a substantially higher probability for under 3.5 than the market's 73.0% implied probability.

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Combined expected goals are low in both sample windows and both sides show weak recent form, so the models generate long fair odds for over 2.5. The market is closer to even money on overs, leaving a clear under edge without relying on match-result uncertainty.

odds available at 09:45